There’s a tendency among some of us to view things happening “far away” as not really our problem and, as US “coastal elites,” we’re often right. We – because of privilege and resources – are often shielded from the nasty parts of modern life. It’s something I often think about. “What if…” I was born in Syria? Or Addis Ababa? or …anywhere other than Europe or N. America? I guess this is a discussion for another day or a Book Club on “The Global Soul” by Pico Iyer.
In the meantime, there’s a pandemic tearing through reasonable models in Asia and at our shores, currently timidly testing our barriers.
Of all the “reasons to prep,” this – pandemic – is the most likely to be something we actually face. A pandemic, by definition, is an epidemic of disease spreading throughout a wide area, nothing really more than that. But the underlying problem is usually that there’s novel aspect to the disease that makes a large population vulnerable to it, a new flu strain being a likely candidate.
So, to the basics. There’s a pandemic – what do you do?
Here’s what I would do. My one and only goal, really when it comes down to it, is to keep my family alive. Bonus if my friends and their families are also alive, which is why I am writing this.
For the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that A. There is a pandemic, B. None of us are immune, C. There’s a 5% CFR*, D. There’s a >1.0 R0*, E. There’s a 5-10 day incubation period and asymptomatic transmission. This is essentially what we’re currently experiencing with the Wuhan Advanced Respiratory Syndrome novel Coronavirus, WARS.
* CFR = case fatality rate; R0 = ability to spread
Things to stock up on:
Water. Just, as much water as you can. There are guidelines of a gallon per person per day or something, likely more than that. Just get water. Get as much as you can and store it safely (like, not in sunlight, etc. Don’t be stupid.)
Food. Don’t get MRE’s. You’re not going to want to eat them. Get real food, that lasts a while, that you actually eat, and attempt to rotate it into your supply of day to day food. If that doesn’t work, just check your supply every now and again and throw out the expired stuff and get new food. Also, don’t forget your pets! (And water for them, as well.)
Protection. Gloves, masks, sanitizer. This is probably the area where we can do the most to help ourselves stay uninfected. But, it’s not easy. It’s not a matter of having them, or even using them. But using them perfectly correctly. One of the key factors in this is *not touching your face* which is something that you can practice before any SHTF (sh*t hits the fan) scenario. You’ll be surprised at how many times you inadvertently touch your face.
Medicine. If you can get your hands on anti-virals like Tamiflu and Relenza, get them and stock them. Also get regular flu/cold treatment meds, aspirin, tylenol, advil, etc. Make sure that you have a good 2-3 weeks treatments for basic ailments. And get the things that help you feel good when you’re sick: tea, menthol, cough drops, etc. If you take life-saving prescription meds, as I do, try to get some extra doses. Many pharmacies and doctors will ok an extra script for these situations.
Other things. Household supplies – toilet paper, trash bags, toothpaste, etc. Stuff that will eliminate any need for excursions to places where people gather.
But, the most important thing you need in a pandemic? DON’T GET SICK.
QUARANTINE YOURSELF.
Ok, but we have jobs, school, etc. We can’t just not go. Well, you won’t have jobs, school, etc., if you die from a pandemic. Life will go on without you. In an active, contagious pandemic situation in your area, you’ll need to find a way to just stay home.
So, what does “quarantine” mean?
No mail. No trips to the grocery store. No package delivery. No trash pickup. NOTHING. Until the risk of illness has passed. Currently, for WARS, the estimates are 2-3 months. TWO to THREE MONTHS. Do you think you’re ready to hang out at home for 90 days? I’m not and I’m mostly likely way more prepared than you.
One thing you can do in a quarantine is – if you really need to go in and out of your house – set up an “airlock” type of area, basically a military-grade mudroom, where you can don protective gear and clothing as you leave. And when you return, take off anything that could carry the virus into your house and decontaminate yourself with bleach sprays, sanitizer, etc. It sounds extreme but it’s actually an easy added layer of protection for your family.
Hopefully, our current situation won’t devolve to requiring these levels of preparedness. But it doesn’t hurt to think ahead.